Time to upgrade military capabilities running out

SOURCE: The Tribune

DEFENCE allocation in the current Budget is Rs 3,37,553 crore as compared to Rs 3,18,931 crore allocated in the interim Budget 2019-20 — an increase of a mere two per cent. Taking into account the increase in the DA of those paid out of the defence budget, inflation in the cost of weapons and equipment and fall in the value of rupee — 70 per cent of the defence equipment is imported — this so-called increase is, in fact, a regression in the allocation for defence. Equally, the defence budget, in terms of percentage of the GDP, has slightly come down from the previous year’s allocation.

It can be argued that with the current state of economy, and equally, if not more pressing, other demands on the national Budget, it was not possible to increase the allocation for defence, no matter how pressing the need for more funds may be.

There has been much discussion on this low allocation within the defence fraternity and more is likely to appear in the media, though not much discussion on the subject is expected in Parliament. Nor do the Members of Parliament appear to be fully alive to the security scene and the state of the armed forces of the country. For the latter, the higher command of the defence forces is to be partly blamed, when they assure the government and the nation that the Army can wage a war on two and a half fronts and the Indian Air Force’s claim of its ability to fight a war on two fronts. The claim that India can take back PoK and another that Pakistan can be defeated in six to eight days add to this false assurance.

Of the current allocation for defence, Rs 1,34,989 crore will be for pay and allowance (which include approximately 3.5 crore civilians), Rs 1,33,819 crore for pensions and the remaining Rs 1,13,626 crore for capital expenditure. The civilian staff, due to their higher age of retirement, consequently higher pension and grant of non-functional financial upgrade (NFFU), in relative terms, get a greater share from the allocation for pay and allowances. Some years earlier, pensions did not form a part of the defence budget.

Before looking at the state of the armed forces, we may review the security scene. China does not appear willing to settle the border dispute with India, it continues to claim Arunachal Pradesh and is in occupation of parts of Ladakh. It has objected to Ladakh being declared a union territory. It is also keeping the border alive by periodically breaching the LAC. Its military capabilities are many times more than that of India. It is in the process of building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It has also been busy setting up a ‘string of pearls’, which in effect is an attempt to strangulate India. China has gained considerable influence in Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and has the Maldives under debt of $3 billion. It is also planning to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

China has been using Pakistan as a proxy to tie down India locally. China has upped its military infrastructure in Tibet, set up naval bases in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Djibouti and Aden and is planning a large military base near Gwadar (Pakistan). China has been upgrading Pakistan’s military capabilities. All these moves relate to capturing markets and economic dominance: akin to the gun-boat diplomacy of 16th and 17th centuries, but in a different format.

China has made great progress in cyber warfare, advance weapon technologies, developed the fastest super computer (Sunway TaihuLight) and the J-31 fifth generation stealth fighter. It has developed an electromagnetic catapult gun for its new aircraft carriers and made great strides in robotics, artificial intelligence and drones.

At the other end, Pakistan keeps pushing terrorists across the LoC in J&K and even across the international border (IB). Equally, it is keeping alive these borders through artillery shelling and use of small arms. All these developments do not augur well for India.

Therefore, for India, the security scene is rather grim. The country imports nearly 70 per cent of defence equipment. The deficiencies in military’s wherewithal are indeed appalling. The IAF is not only short of the number of squadrons, but a large fleet of fighter aircraft is also overdue for replacement. The Indian Navy is low on its naval fleet, especially taking into account the Chinese Navy’s forays into the Indian Ocean. The Indian Army is looking for a suitable rifle for its infantry.

Yet, the defence forces’ higher command has been loosely talking of fighting a two-front war. The demands and complexity of a two-front war are not easy to comprehend. A two-front war had been the bane of German General Staff for half a century across the two World Wars. Such claims give the nation a false sense of security, which in turn leads to no urgency on its part to upgrade the military.

There have been comments on the size of the Army and its budget, calling for reduction in both. The size of a nation’s defence budget is related to a wide range of factors. With the GDP as the base, the percentage of it that need to be allotted to defence depends on a number of issues. The size of the defence forces itself being one factor, which in turn is related to the geo-strategic environment, extent and nature of threats to security and the time frame in which these can materialise. Then, there is the issue of the type and extent of borders and the imperatives of safeguarding the territorial integrity of the country. It also depends on the armed forces’ ammunition stocks, equipment and weaponry and the need for their modernisation.

It is these deficiencies that need to set the nation worrying. There is little night-fighting capability, no upgrade of artillery has taken place for three decades and the infantry is without suitable small arms or proper boots for the staff. Air defence capability is low. Deficiencies in reserves of ammunition and other war-like stores appear alarming.

Given the limitations of financial resources, there is a need to examine the areas from where resources can be created. One is to cut down on the civilian component, paid out of defence budget. The other is the sale of most of the ordnance factories and obtaining of stores produced by these from the open market at competitive prices. At present, these ordnance factories have a monopoly and as a single vendor, they dictate the prices of items supplied to the military.

There are over four dozen DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation) establishments whose performance has so far been dismal. Repeated demands to evaluate their performance through a science audit have met with little success. Thus, many of these have nothing worthwhile to show while some are still struggling to invent the wheel. The defence forces continue to import as much as 70 per cent of their defence equipment. The drive to ‘Make in India’ has bypassed the DRDO.

Therefore, to meet the urgent need for financial resources so as to upgrade the nation’s military capabilities, most of the ordnance factories and DRDO establishments should be put under the hammer. Equally, the civilian staff paid out of the defence budget, should be substantially reduced. Gains from such sales should be deployed to meet the urgent need for making up for deficiencies of weapons and equipment, and upgrading the military’s capabilities.

Maybe, the time to upgrade military capabilities is running out. It may be appropriate to end this piece by recalling the famous saying that policies can change in a matter of weeks and months while military capabilities take years to come about.

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